On February 20, the electronic Rai al-Youm daily newspaper carried the following piece by Abdul Bari Atwan: “The third round of negotiations around the situation in Idlib that took place in Moscow between a Turkish and Russian military and security delegations has collapsed with the reason for this collapse being the fact that the Russian side is clinging to all its terms that consist of wiping out the terrorist armed groups, and restoring the city and its suburbs in full to the Syrian sovereignty as per the Sochi agreement provisions, in addition to rejecting the Turkish demand for the pullout of the Syrian forces to their earlier posts...

“This collapse means that the Syrian Arab army will proceed with its march towards the city’s suburbs and will be regaining control over the villages and towns that remain under the control of the armed group... This will place Turkey in front of two choices: first, to accept the fait accompli in order to dodge a military confrontation with the Russians, the Syrian army and their allies; or to proceed with the forces’ mobilization and to clash with the Syrian army...

“Dr. Ibrahim Kalin, the official spokesperson and advisor to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, admitted, at a press conference he held in Ankara, the failure of the negotiations in Moscow around Idlib. He revealed that his country’s delegation rejected the map and paper presented by the Russian side... On the other side, the Russian statement underlined a point that might have actually been the reason behind the negotiations’ collapse...as it stated that “realizing security and stability on the long run in Idlib and other parts in Syria is only possible if the country’s sovereignty, independence, unity and safety are respected.”

“This is an important point as it stresses on the sovereignty of the Syrian state in Idlib and its suburbs, which means a firm rejection of the demand made by the head of the Turkish delegation on the pullout of the Syrian Arab army from Khan Sheikhoun, Maarat al-Nu’man, and Saraqib, as well as all the other cities and towns in Rif Idlib... President Erdogan has been granted a deadline that ends by the end of February to pull out the Turkish army. Otherwise, this pullout will be imposed by force...

“The Russian military command will not allow any Turkish attack to take place that could modify the givens on the ground under any excuses. The Syrian government has opened safe humanitarian passages to the displaced persons from Idlib in order to completely or partially strip the Turkish side of this card. All the signs indicate that the odds of a confrontation are much higher than the odds of appeasement... The next few days will be decisive at the level of the Syrian scene...”