On December 5, Abdul Bari Atwan wrote the following piece in the electronic Rai al-Youm daily newspaper: “The first Gulf tour by King Salman Bin Abdulaziz determined the work agenda of the Gulf summit that will be launched in Manama tomorrow, Tuesday, in addition to determining the nature of the alliances and the new image of the GCC in the near future. There are some highly important comments that we must examine if we want to read into the future of the Gulf and the nature of the relations between its countries as well as the regional neighborhood:

“First: The fact that the Saudi monarch ignored the Sultanate of Oman, a founding member of the GCC, during his Gulf tour. This means that the statement of Mr. Ghanem Bouaini, the Bahraini minister of the Shura Council, to the Saudi Al-Hayat newspaper where he said that “the file of the Gulf Union will be discussed at the summit and this union will not include the Sultanate of Oman,” will be the main axis of this upcoming summit. The fact that King Salman did not visit Muscat confirms that Oman will be ruled out from this union. This also reflects a silent crisis taking place between Al-Riyadh and Muscat knowing that Oman had rejected the idea of this union several years ago when Saudi Arabia made the suggestion at a seminar in Manama.

“Second: The fact that the Saudi monarch chose the city of Abu Dhabi, the capital of the UAE, as the first stop in his tour was not a random thing but rather a carefully studied step aimed at delivering a political message indicating that the UAE, which is playing the largest role alongside Saudi Arabia at the Al-Hazm Storm and the Yemeni war in general, is the closest Gulf state to the heart of the Saudi leadership and it comes ahead of all the other capitals. Indeed, the UAE gave the highest number of victims in this war and it participated with the largest number of jets.

“Third: The Saudi monarch’s keenness on solving the oil crisis between his country and Kuwait and proceeding with pumping the oil from Al-Khefji field, which is located in the joint region… This reflects a Saudi desire to clear one of the latest border differences between the countries of the new suggested Gulf union.
Fourth: The Saudi monarch reached Abu Dhabi two hours following the departure of the Egyptian President Abdul Fattah es-Sisi. This squandered the hopes in a possible Egyptian-Saudi reconciliation and confirmed that the Saudi monarch is only focusing on the Gulf States [to form] a strategic alliance on the security-related, economic, and political matters as opposed to a blatant divorce with Egypt…

“Five: The father of the Qatari Prince, Sheikh Hamad Bin Khalifa al-Thani, was, along with his son, Prince Tamim, at the head of the parties who welcomed the Saudi monarch at the Doha Airport. This means that the Qatari-Saudi reconciliation is now deeper and more serious than many might think. Indeed, the relationship between the former Qatari prince and the present Saudi monarch was not good…

“We don’t know how the Omani authorities will be dealing with this Saudi attempt at marginalizing them. The Omanis often opt for keeping silent and avoiding any engagement in political and media skirmishes. They tend to be quiet. Perhaps, the level of their participation at the Manama summit tomorrow might reflect some of their reactions in this context.

“The Yemen war and extent of participation at that war in addition to the extent of adherence to the Saudi leadership in its confrontation with Iran in Syria and Iraq will represent the criteria or the conditions for becoming a member at any new Gulf union… Saudi Arabia did not accept the Omani neutrality at the Yemen war. It expected Oman to be actively involved. Saudi Arabia contained its anger for just over a year. Then, it ran out of patience especially since the Omani position regarding this war proved to be correct. This Saudi impatience was reflected through reports published in the Saudi media accusing the Sultanate of Oman of opening is lands for the smuggling of Iranian weapons to the Houthi-Saleh alliance. The Sultanate denied these accusations and dared the people behind them to present any proof..."